Rapid population growth and consumer demand for variety are driving consistent gains in China’s already flourishing fruit and vegetable market.

Analysis by AstuteAnalytica projects a 6.64% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the sector over the next decade. That would increase the value of China's produce trade from $1.3 trillion in 2023 to $2.4 trillion by 2032.

Tropical fruit consumption, in particular, is projected to grow by 8.46% CAGR.

In the past five years, China’s avocado imports increased by 1,000%, AstuteAnalytica noted. During the same span, blueberry consumption increased by 500%.

In 2023, China imported 7.33 million tons of fruit worth $15 billion. Tropical fruits like durians and bananas were particularly popular, the report said. The country also imported 337,000 tons of vegetables.

In recent years, imports have accounted for about a quarter of China’s fruit market. To decrease import dependence, China is investing in expanding local production of non-native fruits, like durians and cherries, AstuteAnalytica said. The report notes that China’s domestic cherry production has grown by 20% a year.

China’s total agriculture trade, including imports and exports, was valued at  $302.96 billion in 2023. Trade, however, leaned significantly towards imports, resulting in a deficit of $123.88 billion, the report said.

Consumer demand for greater variety in fresh produce and awareness of health benefits were among the top drivers of growth in Chinese fruit and vegetable sales. Chinese consumers also showed preference for convenient and ready-to-eat produce, and greater interest in organic options.

Growth was also supported by technological advancements, like precision agriculture and supply chain management, which helped decrease food waste. Government policies have also promoted food safety and traceability standards, the report found.