The Atlantic hurricane season, starting June 1 is forecast to be one of the most active in decades.

Dr. Philip Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), forecast a very busy 2024 season, likely to result in major hurricane activity, during a press conference broadcast by the Hurricane Center Live on Thursday.

The CSU Tropical Meteorological Project forecast anticipates 23 named storms, of which 11 will become hurricanes. Of those, five are expected to be major hurricanes, meaning categories 3 and above.

The outlook also projects 115 “named storm days,” well above the average of 69.4 days.

“This is the highest April forecast we’ve put out in 41 years,” Klotzbach said. The forecast comes with “above-normal confidence,” meaning forecasters are fairly certain in their outlook.

“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the forecast reads. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”

La Niña cycle this summer

A transition to La Niña conditions is expected starting in August. This follows an El Niño year, which typically results in calmer storm cycles for the Atlantic Ocean. 

“El Niño tends to knock down storms, while La Niña tends to increase them,” Klotzbach said. 

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The Atlantic Ocean continues to be extremely warm with record-breaking sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic. This creates conditions that encourage increased hurricane activity. 

With a “quick transition to neutral and La Niña conditions in upcoming months, we are waiting to see what will happen with this ocean temperature,” Klotzbach said.

“There's a greater than 80% chance of a transition to La Niña from August to October, which is quite an aggressive forecast, but it makes sense from what we are seeing.”

La Niña can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by weakening wind shear over the Caribbean and Atlantic Basin. This enables storms to develop and intensify.