Brazil's citrus belts of São Paulo and Triângulo/Southwest Minas orange season's final numbers are 230.87 million 40.8-kg boxes, according to Fundecitrus, 0.65% lower than the initial projection in May 2024 of 232.38 million boxes and 24.85% lower than the previous harvest, which totaled 307.22 million boxes.

Final numbers place the 2024/25 yield second to the lowest harvest in 37 years. Fundecitrus highlighted drier weather, higher temperatures, and greening disease as the main drivers behind this season’s low production and the culprits behind a reduction in weight.

Juliano Ayres, Fundecritrus' executive director, explained that "although weather forecasts pointed to little rain during the fruit development period, the impact of the climatic conditions from May to August 2024 was much more intense than expected. Rainfall was 31% lower than forecast, while maximum temperatures were between 3 to 4ºC above the historical average."

This led to an early harvest and a lower-than-estimated fruit yield. The drought affected fruit development, and the high temperatures accelerated ripening, causing the harvest to start earlier, before the onset of the rainy season.

The average weight of the oranges was 159 grams, with fruits from the first, second, and third blooms averaging 162 grams, and those from the fourth bloom averaging 146 grams.

The average fruit drop rate in the citrus belt was 17.8% from the start of the harvest, the lowest rate recorded in the last five years. Estimated losses totaled 50 million boxes throughout the harvest.

The main causes were greening, responsible for 9.05% and 25 million boxes lost; citrus borer and fruit fly, responsible for 4.11% and 12 million boxes; as well as natural and mechanical fruit drop, black spot, leprosis, and citrus canker.

The projection for the 2025/2026 harvest will be announced on May 9.