By Betina Ernst, agronomist and president of consulting firm Top Info Marketing S.A..

Some time ago, a grower asked me: How much more can blueberry demand grow? Is there a ceiling? These are questions many people are asking, and they’re hard to answer.

So far, everything suggests that blueberries continue to advance in their conquest of the world. They seem to be the ideal fruit thanks to their flavor, color, shine, and size, along with their convenience and health benefits. Additionally, they are available year-round, as they can be grown in many temperate and subtropical regions.

Compared to other berries, blueberries have the advantage of being more transportable, maintaining their quality even after several weeks of travel by ship and truck. This makes them a perfect match for what today’s consumers and retailers are looking for.

As often happens, some voices have emerged to warn about the environmental impact of their cultivation and transport, particularly in terms of water use, agrochemicals, and the plastic packaging required for commercialization. However, these opinions have not yet gained enough traction to stop the blueberry’s global popularity. Everything indicates that, for now, blueberries will remain the “king of fruits,” and it remains unclear just how much more their consumption can grow.

The situation looks different, however, when viewed from a production and commercial standpoint: here, success is no longer guaranteed. For years, blueberries have been a highly profitable crop, leading to rapid expansion in many parts of the world. Supply increased year after year, and demand kept pace. Fears of unsold stock were rare, with only a few exceptions. But the problem that did arise was the inability to sustain the high prices. Current market prices are significantly lower than those seen in the past.

The 2024/25 Southern Hemisphere season, which just concluded, was no exception. Peru, the leading exporter in the Southern Hemisphere and globally, recovered after the decline seen in 2023/24. Production returned to full capacity and continued to grow as young plantations entered the productive cycle. As a result, Peru closed another record season, surpassing 300,000 tons exported for the first time.

Other Southern Hemisphere countries weren’t as fortunate. Their expansion had already slowed in recent years, and exports either stabilized or declined.

This is the case for Chile, which has decreased its exports from 110,000 tons in 2017/18 and 2018/19 to 85,000–90,000 tons over the past three years. South Africa's exports stabilized at around 20,000–24,000 tons. Argentina and Uruguay have sharply reduced their exports, becoming niche suppliers. A decade ago, the two countries exported a combined 20,000 tons; today, they export just 6,000. The reasons for this reduction are simple: low market prices make cultivation unprofitable in these countries, and they cannot compete with Peru’s advantages. This is forcing competitors to either change their strategy or exit the business.

But even in Peru, the situation is no longer entirely favorable. Low returns are beginning to erode profits, prompting a reevaluation of the business and requiring adjustments and greater efficiency. Despite this, Peru is expected to continue growing. A large area of land is just now entering production. In addition, cultivation techniques are improving, and older varieties are being replaced with new ones that are more efficient, tastier, and more stable. As a result, Peru will continue to dominate Southern Hemisphere supply—it's estimated that in the next season, 3 out of every 4 Southern Hemisphere blueberries will come from Peru.

Furthermore, due to the ongoing varietal replacement, the blueberries will be of higher quality, especially in terms of flavor and post-harvest shelf life. But despite these efforts, prices are expected to remain low—except in cases of short supply, as occurred in 2023/24.