Global fertilizer demand expected to dip in 2026
Global Fertilizer prices are rising and pushing the industry into a new contraction phase, RaboResearch, Rabobank's Market Analytics branch, reports.
The agency’s Semiannual Fertilizer Outlook states that from April to September 2025, nitrogen and potash fertilizer prices rose by about 15 percent, except for phosphates, which increased by nearly 19 percent.
The report’s lead analyst, Bruno Fonseca, says these prices are weighing heavily on affordability and will lead to market tightening in 2026.
The geopolitical origin of the global fertilizer crisis
Russia is the world’s largest fertilizer supplier, and the plant food is the country’s third-largest export. The domestic market is valued at over $15 billion, and its main destinations are Brazil, India, and the United States.
The global fertilizer market has been on a rocky path since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. However, in 2024 and early 2025, demand rose again, Fonseca says.
“Because the prices were at a very good level then, we saw an improvement in affordability, and farmers regaining purchase power,” he explained.
In the 2024/25 season, global fertilizer demand rose by six percent to 200 million tons, just below the 2020 record high of 203 million tons.
Unfortunately, prices are going back up, as major fertilizer nutrients such as phosphate, potash, and urea, have become more expensive mainly due to production disruptions and geopolitical conflicts affecting supply.
And although the price hike is not as high as in 2022, Fonseca says, “this period is a bit worse in comparison.”
Back then, product prices were higher and so were margins. Now, commodity prices are lower, and fertilizer prices are only one of the items constricting farmers’ profit margins in major producing countries, such as the US, Brazil, and Argentina, he added.
The landscape turns darker when considering that fertilizers are a constant, non-optional expense for growers, Fonseca says. However, utilization will definitely decrease.
“Instead of using 100 percent of the fertilizer, they might use 70, 80 percent, and maybe use some agricultural techniques in order to reduce the cost a bit,” he explained. “But they cannot ignore that cost. They need to use fertilizers.”
Global fertilizer shortage and high prices
Fonseca says potash and phosphates are the two main markets Americans should keep an eye out for.
Potash remains more accessible than nitrogen and phosphate, he said, and demand is expected to remain steady in 2025. Things might change in 2026, as prices keep rising and global demand is expected to decline in response.
However, politics may pose significant challenges for American farmers seeking a more affordable alternative.
Canada, Russia, Belarus, and China account for 78 percent of global potash trade. The US imports nearly 90 percent of its potash supply.
“The US will not purchase from Russia and Belarus, which are two important players,” he explained. “They have to purchase from Canada, and other countries are purchasing from Canada as well.”
This might result in artificially inflated potash prices in the US, making the world’s affordable alternative as expensive as the rest of the category.
As for phosphate, the report says the markets would have to go back 17 years to see comparable levels of affordability in the US and Canada. Fonseca says this is because supply is not growing as fast as it should to match demand.
“Morocco and China are the two main suppliers of phosphates, and China is holding a bit more for the domestic market rather than exporting it,” he explained. “That's causing the price to be a bit higher than it should, and it is impacting all countries.”
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