"We have good news, we're going to have a good crop," Executive Director of Brazil's Fundecitrus, Juliano Ayres, said this morning while unveiling this year's Brazil 2025/26 Orange Crop Forecast report.

The organization projects an output of 314.60 million boxes of oranges weighing 40.8 kg (90 lb), a 36% increase from last year's crop of 230.87 million boxes and a 4.8% increase compared to the last ten seasons. 

The organization projects 182 million bearing trees and 617 fruits per tree, 30% more fruit, and an orange yield of 869 boxes per hectare, an increase from last year's 687, at 258 fruit per box and an average of 1.72 boxes per tree.

"We're going back to the levels of an average crop, and that brings relief to the sector because the previous crops were dramatic due to last year's atypical climate that was hot and drier," Ayres explained. 

Climate, along with cultural practices carried out by farmers, including fertilization, irrigation, and pest and disease control, is the main push behind the projected growth.

The organization reports a 7.5% increase in orange-producing trees, thanks to the maturity of trees planted two or three years ago, an improvement in cultural practices, including less irrigation, and an increase in fruit per tree production.

Almost half of Brazil's citrus area is irrigated. "Climate has changed, temperature has increased, rainfall is more scarce, and irrigation is becoming an almost essential measure in many citrus producing areas in Sao Paulo and around Brazil," the Executive Director explained. 

Factors affecting the 2025/26 orange crop 

Ayres said the one thing to remember is that orange trees have three instances where fruit will drop: physiological drop, right after flowering, and post-flowering.

From mid-August until late September, the country experienced higher temperatures than usual, which affected the first bloom encouraged by irrigation. "The weather affected the center region, south region, north region, and triangular regions especially."

"The profile of our bloom changed; we have more fruit, but it's concentrated in the second bloom," Ayres explained. "The second bloom occurred when we picked up intense rainfall around September, October, and November." 

The second bloom represents almost 70% of this year's output, which means the country will have a later harvest and, therefore, later crop output. 

According to the survey, 51% of mature trees have greening. "We have to keep our groves healthy to stay competitive," Ayres added. But thanks to intensified control and management, the incidence of new growth has started to decrease. 

"We're starting to decrease the greening situation," Ayres said. "I'm positive that in five years we're going to have less greening than what we have today." 

The Natal, Valencia, and Hamlin varieties are the highest-producing trees, with an average of 753, 695, and 692 fruits per tree, respectively. The organization expects 158 grams of fruit. 

The following projection update will be available in September.