Agronometrics in Charts: Keys behind the Mexican blueberry spot market spike
Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ examines a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic and visualizing the trade market factors driving change. Check out our entire archive.
As the Mexican blueberry season winds down, producers and exporters are looking back on a highly successful year, especially when compared to seasons past. With the bulk of the harvest behind us, we can now analyze the market data to offer clear insights into the unique commercial journey of this year's crop.
This analysis arrives on the heels of the recent Blueberries Consulting event in Guadalajara, Mexico, where Colin Fain, CEO of Agronometrics, presented some of these findings.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
When evaluating the Mexican season through the lens of Shipping Point data, which tracks the highly reactive spot market, the most striking anomaly is the market pricing observed between weeks 8 and 17. This window represents the core of the Mexican season and saw a dramatic price increase compared to previous years.
Mexican blueberry sector steps up
There are several overlapping reasons for this sudden price jump. To set the stage, Chile's season (which immediately precedes Mexico’s) fell 25 percent short of its volume targets and wrapped up two weeks earlier than the previous year. Simultaneously, Florida’s blueberry industry suffered a devastating freeze that slashed production by 58 percent, effectively leaving a massive supply vacuum in the market.
Mexico ultimately came to the market's rescue with a highly respectable volume. From the beginning of the year through week 21, Mexico exported 10 percent more volume year-over-year, with a particularly noticeable surge after week 13. Further market relief arrived via Georgia, where the harvest began about a week earlier than last year, injecting significant volumes into the supply chain by week 17 when prices began to ease.
To say the least, it has been a dynamic and volatile season. However, looking strictly at the high-price window between weeks 8 and 17, overall market volumes remained remarkably stable, with just a minor to percent year-on-year decrease.
*Images are referential | Graph courtesy of Agronometrics.
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