Tight supplies ahead: Record March heat impacts 2026 pistachio yields

Following a 1.6 billion-pound record season in 2025, the outlook for the 2026 pistachio crop has cracked under the pressure of an unusually hot spring. With the industry entering the naturally occurring off-bearing year, forecasts now sit at about 800 million pounds.

Stephen Vasquez, Executive Director of the Administrative Committee for Pistachios (ACP), told FreshFruitPortal.com that the downward revision follows extreme heat during an unusually early bloom in March. Temperatures exceeded 85°F across much of California's main pistachio production region and reached nearly 100°F in some areas.

California remains the top pistachio-producing state in the US, accounting for roughly 99 percent of total volumes.

According to Vasquez, researchers from the California Pistachio Research Board and industry partners have surveyed growers to better understand the event and identify management practices that could reduce future losses.

"We know that climate is changing. We know that it's going to impact not just our crop, but agriculture in general. And so we need to figure out how to get around some of those challenges," he said.

Growers also report elevated blank nut rates. While normal blanking ranges from 15 to 20 percent, Vasquez said some orchards are seeing levels as high as 80 percent. 

“We're seeing some significant blanking happening. And it's probably, again, related to that bloom time event of extreme heat. That's definitely going to impact our overall yield,” he confirmed.

The industry expects a clearer picture by the end of August as harvest progresses. Final production figures are expected in early January, Vasquez noted, as harvest is scheduled to begin in the coming days.

"Nut fill is taking place currently. Golden Hills and Lost Hills will be, for the most part, the first varieties to start coming up. And then that will be followed by Kerman," he explained.

For over 50 years, Kerman was the standard cultivar in California and much of North America. However, its high chill-hour requirement, strong tendency toward alternate bearing, and pest susceptibility gave way to Golden Hills, the current market darling.

Pistachios enjoy strong demand despite heat losses

Even with weather-related woes, Vasquez said demand for US-grown pistachios remains strong, as other major producing countries, including Iran and Türkiye, are also facing production challenges related to water availability and climate.

However, temperature is not the industry’s sole problem. New orchard development has slowed significantly. Vasquez attributed the decline primarily to the high capital costs of establishing perennial orchards and broader production expenses in California.

“Annual plantings fell from roughly 30,000 to 33,000 acres between 2012 and 2022 to about 10,500 acres in 2023, 7,500 acres in 2024, and approximately 7,000 acres in 2025,” he noted. 

On the brighter side, the executive noted that newer orchards planted in recent years are beginning to enter production after five to six years.

Get them while you can

Looking ahead, Vasquez said there’s uncertainty regarding how this year's weather-related losses could affect next season's "on" year. For buyers, he advised securing supplies early.

"For customers out there that are actually looking to secure their needs for pistachios, they should get in touch with processors sooner rather than later," Vasquez said. "There is going to be a tight supply."

*All photos courtesy of ACP.

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