Brazil revises orange projection up for the 2026/27 season

Orange production in the citrus belt of São Paulo and the Triângulo/Southwest of Minas Gerais for the 2026/27 season was revised upward to 263.15 million 40.8-kilo boxes, according to the first re-estimation by industry body Fundecitrus.

This figure represents a three percent increase of 7.95 million boxes compared to the initial projection published in May.

Fundecitrus explained that the adjustment reflects higher fruit weight among early and mid-season varieties, which offset the increase in premature fruit drop.

Image by Shutterstock

Rains favor fruit weight, but harvest moves slowly

Between May and August 2026, accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt reached 210 millimeters, 51 percent above the historical average for the period between 1991 and 2020, according to Climatempo Meteorologia.

Rainfall, combined with a slower harvest pace, favored the development and weight gain of the oranges.

By mid-August, only 27 percent of the production had been harvested, mainly due to the high proportion of second-bloom fruit and the decision to prioritize harvesting at peak maturity.

By that date, Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi recorded an 85 percent harvest progress, while other early varieties reached 65 percent. Pera reached 16 percent, and late varieties Valencia, Folha Murcha, and Natal recorded 1.2 percent, 1.2 percent, and 0.1 percent, respectively.

The projected average weight for all varieties increased from 160 to 166 grams per fruit, reducing the number of oranges needed to fill a 40.8-kilo box from 255 to 246.

Higher premature fruit drop

The longer stay of oranges on the trees, along with increased pressure from pests and diseases, also raised premature fruit drop. Greening, leprosis, and citrus canker intensified losses, particularly during August.

The average drop rate was revised from 23.7 percent to 24.1 percent. By region, the phenomenon is most intense in the south, center, and southwest, where greening incidence is higher.

The next orange production update is scheduled for December 10, 2026.

*All images are referential via Shutterstock. 

Related stories

Brazilian citrus belt faces sour season on weather, disease-struck yields

Citrus greening disease hits its lowest spread rate in the last nine years in Brazil