El Niño won’t stop: Peruvian blueberry export estimates keep dropping 

Peruvian blueberry industry body Proarandanos released a new export projection for the 2026/27 season. This is the association's 6th report, and once again, the forecast is down: the sector now projects 344,000 metric tons of blueberry shipments for the current campaign.

The figure is six percent lower than the projection published at the beginning of October and over 10 percent below the volume exported in the previous season. This is despite having approximately 15 percent more hectares in production this year. 

“The adjustment reflects the impact that weather conditions in recent weeks have had on the phenological development of the plantations,” Proarandanos explained in a press release. 

Graph by Proarandanos

The Peruvian ag-industry at large has been grappling with the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon, which is threatening crop volumes and projections across the Andean country.

Peruvian blueberry production peak came and went

Through week 40, Peru has exported 163,500 metric tons of Peruvian blueberries, up 4.5 percent from the same period last season. However, according to Proarandanos, this lead has narrowed significantly in recent weeks: in week 38, it stood at nearly 19 percent.

The season's peak is believed to have occurred in week 40, reaching 14,600 metric tons. This reflects a 30 percent year-on-year decline, when shipments totaled nearly 21,000 metric tons. 

Graph by Proarandanos

Meanwhile, the year-end projection for the organic segment stands at 24,500 metric tons of Peruvian blueberries, down 31 percent from the previous season. The peak is expected in week 47 at 1,000 metric tons, nearly half of last season’s production peak of 1,900 metric tons.

Wait and see

For the remainder of the fourth quarter of 2026 (weeks 41 through 53), exports are projected at 133,500 metric tons, nearly 25 percent less than the 177,300 exported in the same period last season.

For the final stretch of the 2026/27 campaign, between January and April 2027, Proarandanos projects exporting 46,600 metric tons of fruit, representing a 5.3 percent year-on-year decline. 

Image by MINAGRI | Archive

“This period carries the highest degree of uncertainty, as seasonal rainfall could significantly impact the projected volumes,” the association said. 

The industry body is adamant about continuing to issue export projection updates as weather conditions over recent weeks have become more volatile. Proarandanos will release the next update during the first week of November.

*All images are referential | Graphs courtesy of Proarandanos

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