Global OJ supply to drop 13 percent on smaller Brazilian crop, weak demand

The global orange juice sector faces yet another difficult season in 2026/27, according to Rabobank. Brazil, the unquestioned leading exporter of the breakfast beverage, is projecting a smaller crop as consumer demand continues to weaken.

A report by the international bank forecasts global production will fall 13.4 percent year-on-year to about 1.16 million metric tons in 2026/27, following a rebound in 2025/26. Brazil accounts for most of the expected decline.

High retail prices continue to suppress consumption in major markets, including the United States and Europe. In this context, Rabobank projects global orange juice demand will decline by another three percent in 2026/27, extending a 40 percent contraction over the past decade.

Greening disease continues to pressure orange juice market

Brazilian non-profit Fundecitrus forecasts that São Paulo and the western Minas Gerais citrus belt will produce 255.2 million 90-pound boxes of oranges in 2026/27, down 12.9 percent from the previous season’s estimated 292.9 million boxes.

Adverse weather and the continued spread of citrus greening disease drove the lower forecast. Despite a one percent increase in productive trees to 184.3 million, yields are expected to decline sharply as fruit counts per tree fall 17 percent year-on-year.

“Several structural factors continue to pressure production, including a hotter and drier climate, the spread of citrus greening and other diseases, rising production costs, and a contracting global orange juice market that helps create a volatile price environment,” the report stated.

Citrus greening remains the industry’s biggest production threat in Brazil. Fundecitrus reported that the disease reached 47.6 percent of trees in 2025, up from 38 percent in 2023 and 24 percent in 2022.

In response, farmers have intensified control programs through more frequent pesticide applications, increased monitoring, and tree removal. However, those measures have only slowed the spread.

According to the Brazilian non-profit, citrus greening will cause nearly 50 million boxes of fruit to be lost during the 2026/27 season, representing approximately $300 million in economic losses for growers.

Rising input costs affect quality

Beyond pest and disease pressures, Rabobank pointed to higher labor and fertilizer costs—the latter driven by the war in Iran—as additional constraints on farm profitability.

Fruit size continues to decline as growers rely more heavily on later blooms due to hotter and drier weather during the critical flowering period. Fundecitrus said first blooms accounted for 62 percent of production between 2015 and 2020, but this share dropped to 34 percent between 2021 and 2026.

Smaller fruit means growers need more oranges to fill each 90-pound box, further reducing efficiency.

Outside Brazil, Rabobank expects declines in orange juice production in Mexico, Florida, and the European Union. Combined output from those suppliers is projected to reach 215,000 metric tons, about 13 percent below 2025/26 levels.

Meanwhile, the value of frozen concentrated orange juice has fallen sharply from record highs reached in late 2024. The report said prices dropped from about $7,000 per metric ton to roughly $2,850 per metric ton by May 2026.

Retail prices, however, have not followed the same trend. Average US orange juice retail prices increased from $9.46 per gallon in 2023/24 to about $11.73 per gallon in 2025/26.

“Elevated retail prices have continued to weigh on volume sales across key markets, with volumes underperforming in recent quarters,” the report said.

Rabobank said spot orange prices in São Paulo have already fallen below $6 per 90-pound box, compared with highs near $20 per box in 2024. Current prices sit below production costs for many growers.

“In summary, the 2026/27 harvest year is expected to be challenging for the orange juice sector,” the report stated. “Under current price levels, margins are likely to remain under pressure for both processors and farmers.”

*All images are referential.

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