Weather abnormalities are reshaping Mexican mango exports

Changing weather patterns have really done a number on the Northern Hemisphere's growing season. Warmer-than-usual temperatures disrupted the campaigns of several categories across the United States over the spring, and now it’s the turn of the Mexican mango industry to experience the consequences of a shifting climate. 

Currently transitioning to North Sinaloa, the mango campaign south of the border has seemingly hit a snag, as volumes remain tight and prices increase. Meanwhile, numbers from Mexico’s Association of Mango Export Packers (EMEX, by its initials in Spanish) show a veritable reshuffling of the origin map, with varietal performance greatly deviating from just a year before. 

However, despite local reports pointing to a dramatic production drop in Sinaloa, EMEX and the National Mango Board (NMB) remain cautious and hopeful. 

Both industry bodies foresee exports into the US will remain constrained but stable, with international prices higher year-on-year, but accessible enough to ensure strong demand during the summer months. 

Count on weather to make things interesting

A cold weather front in March forced the Mexican mango sector to revise volumes out of Jalisco down for late May and early June. That shift alone would’ve been enough to warrant some recalibrating, but then Mother Nature surprised distributors again when fruit kept trickling in, albeit slightly delayed. 

In conversation with FreshFruitPortal.com, NMB President Ramón Ojeda explained that some reshuffling was necessary to adapt to the new landscape, but promotional efforts associated with 5 de Mayo and the FIFA World Cup were well positioned to help the market receive the “excess” fruit. 

“That volume was absorbed in a very positive way because there was a lot of enthusiasm from retailers to engage with in-store mango promotions,” Ojeda explained. “That’s how we could build that dynamism.” 

During Q1 and Q2 of 2026, the NMB reported 136 active campaigns in the US, a 92 percent year-on-year uptick. This raked in $200,000 more in sales compared to the same period last year (a 20 percent increase), with 72 percent growth in store participation.

But weather-related curveballs didn’t stop there. That same cold front that initially affected volumes in Jalisco greatly impacted the flowering stage of mango trees further north, in Nayarit, while in Sinaloa, cold hour accumulation was far from optimal, a crucial environmental condition for the correct development of the fruit in the early stages. The result has been constrained volumes from both origins, with local media reporting production drops of over 70 percent in the northernmost state. 

Myrna Castro, Executive Director at EMEX, is a bit more cautious about the specific impact weather disruptions have had on the Mexican mango season. 

“We’re still assessing the damage. Some say it’s 30 percent; others say 60 percent,” she explained to FreshFruitPortal.com. “But we need to look closely at the data and seriously investigate the situation first.”

Mango export outlook for 2026

EMEX numbers reflect a clear impact of the production drop on exports to the US, but the situation is far from the dramatic landscape painted by local reports. 

“There are no problems with exports at the moment,” Castro said. “We’re at a very similar point to the same time in previous years.” 

Until June 30, Mexico had shipped 45 million boxes of mango, a drop of over 12 percent compared to the same period the year before. Volume by weight has dropped as well to a bit over 200 metric tons—a nearly 10 percent year-on-year drop. 

The EMEX executive is adamant that her country’s nearly 600,000 acres of mango orchards are a major advantage, as it’s easier to redirect fruit from the domestic market to export. This is especially convenient for producers who need to fulfill programs or want to capitalize on rising spot market prices. 

Despite the lack of clarity on the actual magnitude of production declines in the area, Castro says Nayarit and Sinaloa producers are actively supporting export efforts. 

But the organization doesn’t attribute this changing landscape solely to shifting weather, as EMEX also reports a shrinking export value chain. Specifically, this entails fewer active orchards (down eight percent), producers (down seven percent), packing houses (down four percent), and even a diminishing distributing force across the border, with a drop of almost 20 percent in the number of US distributors.

Low volumes, high prices 

Unsurprisingly, with low mango volumes come high mango prices. 

The trend is already evident in the domestic market, where Mexicans now have to pay up to MX $15 ($0.80) per kilo, and farm-gate prices have nearly tripled, according to the local news outlet LineaDirectaPortal. More importantly, this increase is expected to translate into higher export prices, though it is uncertain how hard the impact will be. 

Ojeda ventures to guess an increase ranging from $0.50 to $1.00 per mango at retail, which he believes is steep, but not too much to deter US shoppers from buying mango. 

The NMB, he says, is prepared with campaigns and promotions should the gameboard change again in the remainder of the season. High prices in the US market, Ojeda explains, might be attractive for Brazilian producers, who, if possible, would be glad to bridge any volume gaps left by a short North Sinaloan season. 

“We can’t give space for our consumers to choose other fruits,” the executive says. “We must be at the selling point, in consumers’ minds. That’s how you grow the market.”

*All images are referential. 

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