Washington welcomes the 2026/27 apple season with an optimistic outlook
Apple growers in the United States may be facing increasingly tight margins and an unbudging domestic demand. However, Washington state, the country’s leading category producer, is looking at the 2026/27 season with hope in its eyes.
A recently released crop report by industry body USApple forecasts 176 million bushels for the northwestern state, valued at around $2 billion. The figure sits two percent below the 2025/26 crop and accounts for 62 percent of US apples for the upcoming campaign.
In conversation with FreshFruitPortal.com, Michael Schadler, President of the Washington Apple Commission, said the USApples forecast aligns with state grower expectations, which point to a volume decline of anywhere between five and 10 percent for the current season.
This estimate might still be fulfilled, as the industry body notes that for Washington, production doesn’t automatically equal supply.
“There is a long harvest season to gauge how many apples the market will bear, and it’s entirely likely that not every apple will get picked,” the report states.
Favorable weather in an adverse economic climate
This season, fruit growers in the US have had to grapple with the effects of several weather abnormalities that have jeopardized production and quality across the country—sometimes to dramatic results.
Washington is no exception, reporting spring cold snaps in the spring and, according to USApple, some “isolated pockets of severe hailstorms.” However, Schadler notes that despite some frost damage in April and the smoke from wildfires in neighboring British Columbia, “the impact wasn’t significant when looking at the state’s total production.”
“Quality looks good, and fruit sizing is balanced,” he said.
When looking at market conditions, the outlook is a bit more cloudy. According to the industry body, flat domestic demand, rising input costs, and exports below historical levels are dragging farm-gate value, pressuring grower margins.
The trend is not new, but Schadler is optimistic despite the industry sounding the alarm.
“From an inventory and market perspective, we’re in a better place this year than we were the last three seasons,” the industry leader said. “Movement has been pretty strong since the start of the year, which has helped create a better supply and demand equilibrium in the market. That positive momentum should continue into the new crop year.”
This newfound balance might be the result of shrinking commercial acreage in top apple-producing states, which in Washington state has led to the removal of 3,000 planted acres since 2022.
Gala reigns supreme in Washington—for now
Despite losing ground nationally to varieties such as Granny Smith and Honeycrisp, Gala is still the number one apple in the country, and the same is true in Washington.
Schadler said state growers expect a smaller Honeycrisp season since it’s an off-year for the variety. However, the cultivar’s decline might be easily offset by the expansion of Cosmic Crisp, the Washington State-developed cultivar that in May was renewed to be grown exclusively in North America by Washington growers for five more years.
“Cosmic Crisp was a top performer over the last year,” Schadler said. “Production was up significantly, but so was market demand in both the US and in export markets.”
Washington exports around 30 percent of its production, which is why the trade policy has been increasingly important to the state’s apple industry. The executive expects this to remain a sensitive topic, especially as some negotiations, including those with India, Taiwan, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia, have yet to solidify into definitive trade agreements.
“We are hopeful that the US and India will reach a deal,” he concluded. “Many of the deals that have already been announced by the Trump Administration will be helpful if and when they are fully implemented.”
*All images courtesy of Washington Apple Commission.
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