Agronometrics in Charts: Peruvian blueberry revised down again by six percent

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This year's Peruvian blueberry season is looking tougher than it did just a month ago. In its fourth export projection for the 2026/27 campaign, industry body Proarándanos lowered its season-end estimate to 382,000 tonnes of fresh blueberries. That is six percent below the 404,000 tonnes it projected in August. The association attributes the cut to worsening weather conditions, particularly the impact El Niño is expected to have on productivity in the second half of the season.

Image by Shutterstock

Proarándanos' own figures put that number in context. Peru shipped about 64,000 tonnes through week 35 of last season and about 318,000 tonnes from week 36 to the end of the campaign, for a total of roughly 382,000 tonnes. The revised forecast therefore leaves Peru's 2026/27 exports roughly level with 2025/26.

A strong start to the Peruvian blueberry campaign...

The campaign opened quickly. Through week 35, Peru had exported approximately 95,000 tonnes, 48 percent more than the 64,000 tonnes shipped by the same week last season. That volume already represents 25 percent of the new full-season projection, compared with 17 percent at the same point in 2025/26.

Proarándanos cautions against reading too much into those early numbers. It says the strong start is partly explained by the consolidation of early varieties and the increase in planted area, and should not be taken as a sign that the weather impact has eased. The association expects the greatest climatic impact to fall on the middle and final stages of the campaign.

Because so much fruit has already shipped, the volume left to come is noticeably smaller. Proarándanos estimates that around 286,000 tonnes remain to be exported from week 36 onward, about 10 percent less than the 318,000 tonnes Peru shipped over the same stretch last season.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

...A lower peak

The biggest change in the new forecast is at the top of the curve. Proarándanos now expects Peruvian blueberry exports to peak in week 42 at about 16,500 tonnes. That is 16 percent below what it projected for the August peak and 21 percent below last season's high of 20,900 tonnes.

Organic volumes revised down further

The organic segment has been cut more sharply than the overall forecast. Proarándanos now expects organic exports to close the season at 25,000 tonnes, 18  percent below the 31,000 tonnes estimated in August. The organic peak is expected to shift to week 48 at close to 1,200 tonnes, below last season's peak of about 1,900 tonnes in week 40.

Image by Minagri

Further cuts not ruled out

Proarándanos says El Niño conditions have worsened compared with what was expected in August, reinforcing the call for caution it made in earlier communications. Although the industry has already brought forward a significant volume of fruit, weather conditions continue to create uncertainty about production in the middle and late stages of the season.

Climate anomalies have kept occurring, and the Peruvian blueberry association does not rule out another downward revision in its next update.

*Graph courtesy of Agronometrics

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