The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) believes there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño weather phenomenon will continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.
The organization said various atmospheric and oceanic features – including rising sea surface temperatures (SST) – reflected an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.
“Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015,” the CPC said.
“For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event, relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO [El Niño Southern Oscillation] prediction.
“A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.”
The CPC added that across the U.S., temperature and precipitation impacts associated with the weather phenomenon were expected to remain ‘minimal’ during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter.
“El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins,” the group said.
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