Agronometrics in Charts: Record Mexican shipments drop US avocado prices to $1 per pound

Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic, and visualizing trade market factors that are driving change. Check out our entire archive.

The US avocado market continues to expand in 2026, supported by strong import volumes and modest domestic growth.

According to the USDA’s Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook (March 2026), California is expected to produce 330 million pounds of avocados in the 2025–26 marketing year, a one percent increase from the previous season. About 94 percent of this crop consists of Hass or Hass-like varieties, reinforcing their dominance in the US market.

Despite this growth, the US avocado market remains heavily dependent on imports. In 2025, the United States imported a record 2.87 billion pounds of fresh avocados, marking a seven percent increase from 2024 and surpassing the previous record set in 2023.

Mexico alone accounted for 83 percent of import volume and 88 percent of total import value, highlighting its critical role in supplying the US market year-round.

US avocado imports on the rise

Supply conditions in early 2026 have further shaped the market. Between January and mid-March, avocado shipments from Mexico were 24 percent higher than during the same period in 2025. In addition, larger avocados accounted for 50 percent of shipments, up from 40 percent a year earlier.

This increase in both volume and fruit size has placed downward pressure on prices, with average shipping-point prices for larger Hass avocados falling to around $1 per pound, roughly one-third of the price seen a year earlier.

Seasonal imports from other countries also influence the US avocado market. In 2025, Peru supplied 218 million pounds, accounting for about 7 percent of total shipments, with most arriving between June and August. Colombia contributed an additional four percent, with shipments spread more evenly throughout the year. These imports often coincide with California’s peak season, increasing overall supply and contributing to lower prices.

Overall, the USDA report shows that the US avocado market in 2026 is characterized by record import dependence, increasing supply, and falling prices. While these trends benefit consumers by increasing availability and affordability, they also create competitive pressure on domestic producers, particularly in California.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

*All images are referential. 

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