Chinese cherry importers say the market has behaved unusually in the first few weeks of the current Chilean season, with prices climbing even as more volumes arrived.

However, the situation could be very different in the second half of the season, when sources believe that average prices could fall well below last year's level.

Speaking with FreshFruitPortal.com, importers said that in a typical year the last air freight cherry arrivals would be followed by sea freight arrivals and, consequently, declining prices.

However, this year, when the first batch of sea transported Chilean cherries arrived, prices were resilient and even rose slightly.

Liu Wenpo, chairman of Beijing Runfuyuan Commercial Co., Ltd., said that the market performance of cherries was surprising. He attributed the situation to lower than normal sea freight arrivals.

However, he also stressed that this abnormal market would not last long, for two reasons. Firstly, the Chilean Cherry Commission has forecast cherry exports to rise by 16.7% year-on-year, setting a new historical record. Secondly, the small volume in the early stage means that the "big forces" are concentrated in the rear.

With Chinese New Year this year significantly ahead of previous years on Jan. 25, the remaining "golden period" for sales is limited and there will likely be considerable pressure on subsequent market sales.

Li Zhixue, the general manager of Guangzhou Jiguoxuan Trading Co., Ltd., expressed similar views, saying the recent abnormality of the cherry market was mainly due to the limited volume.

Regarding the New Year and the Lunar New Year, Liu Wenpo said that this year's domestic economic environment is not performing well, and consumers' willingness to consume various types of imported fruits has declined.

Li Zhixue predicted the concentrated arrival of sea freight volumes later will quickly push the market prices down. They might even fall by about 10% - 20% compared with the same period last year, he said.

According to local news, the third Chilean sea freighter arrived in Hong Kong on Dec. 20. It is expected that 17 cargo ships will arrive in Hong Kong before the Chinese New Year.