The initial 2021-22 California Navel orange forecast is 70.0 million cartons, down 14% from the previous year, according to a report by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA).

Of the total Navel orange forecast, 67 million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley. Cara Cara variety Navel orange production in the Central Valley is forecast at 6 million cartons.

These forecasts are based on the results of the 2021-22 Navel Orange Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was conducted from June 15 to Sept. 1, 2021.

Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.

This forecast includes production of conventional, organic, and specialty Navel oranges (including Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties).

Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 239, down 25% from the previous year and below the five-year average of 344. The average Sept. 1 diameter was 2.145 inches, below the five-year average of 2.208 inches. The Cara Cara orange set was 211 with a diameter of 2.146 inches.