Fundecitrus has released the second re-estimate of the 2024-2025 Brazilian orange crop in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro, projecting a total of 223.14 million boxes of 40.8 kg.

This figure is 3.4% higher than the first re-estimate released in September (215.78 million boxes) but 4.0% lower than the initial projection in May (232.38 million boxes).

In statements collected by Fundecitrus, Juliano Ayres, agronomist engineer and executive director of the organization, highlighted that this campaign is "completely atypical," differing from all nine previous editions of the Crop Estimation Survey (EEC). He noted that the fourth flowering is unusually significant, accounting for 20.23 million of the 223.14 million boxes—9.1% of total production, compared to the 7.1% initially estimated.

As reported, much of this fruit will be harvested off-season, between January and April 2025, and will weigh less than fruit from the first three blooms—126 grams versus 161 grams, respectively.

The initial leaf removal from 2,560 orange trees, conducted between March 14 and April 26, estimated that the fourth bloom would produce 32 fruits per tree. However, a second round of leaf removal from 520 additional trees, conducted between September 23 and October 25, indicated there will be 54 fruits per tree.

The Impact of Late Rainfall on the Harvest

In addition to the influence of the fourth bloom, heavy rains in October and November—85 millimeters above the historical average—contributed to fruit growth across all varieties.

However, these rains came too late. The region had experienced 11 consecutive months of below-average rainfall. Consequently, the expected average fruit weight dropped from 169 grams in May to 155 grams in September, rising slightly to 156 grams in the latest estimate.

When analyzed by variety, and considering fruit from all blooms, Pera oranges were the only ones to show an increase in weight compared to the September prediction.

According to Ayres, the total number of orange boxes in the second re-estimate fell short of the May estimate primarily due to a rise in the fruit drop rate, which increased to 19% from 18.50%. This was largely attributed to factors such as greening and mechanized operations, especially pruning.

Another factor influencing this increase is the higher-than-expected volume of production from the fourth bloom. This is anticipated to extend the harvest period compared to previous seasons, which could exacerbate losses caused by fruit drop.

You can review the full report here.