In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we take a look at the impact of weather on U.S. agriculture. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

According to the USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook (March 2025), 2024 brought historic heat to the United States, marking the warmest year in the contiguous U.S. since records began in 1895, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. While 2024 also ranked as the third wettest year overall, key agricultural states like California and Washington experienced a dangerous mix of summer dryness and extreme heat, significantly affecting fruit and tree nut production.

California and Washington—together responsible for more than 80% of U.S. fruit and tree nut value—saw drought conditions intensify during the late summer. In California, southern regions were hit especially hard. By February 2025, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported moderate to extreme drought across the entire southeast interior of the state.

In Northern California, drought was less severe. The Sacramento Valley saw a rapid shift from no drought in July 2024 to 100% of land classified as abnormally dry by October. Fortunately, cooler temperatures and above-average rainfall in November helped ease conditions somewhat. The San Joaquin Valley, largely drought-free through the summer, also saw worsening dryness by fall, with nearly all land in drought by February 2025—over 60% at moderate to severe levels.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Despite this, signs of recovery are emerging. California’s Sierra Nevada snowpack was reported at 96% of normal in March 2025. The State Water Project has increased water allocations to 40% of requested supplies, up from 30% the previous year.

Washington faced one of its driest starts to a water year in over a century. A warm, wet December 2023 eroded crucial snowpack, prompting the state to declare a drought emergency in April 2024. Drought conditions peaked in August, affecting nearly 90% of the state, with over half categorized as moderate to extreme.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Looking ahead, NOAA forecasts lower-than-normal temperatures and increased spring precipitation in Washington—positive signs for growers. If these conditions hold, the state may enter the 2025 growing season free from drought. However, concerns remain: Yakima Basin reservoirs are at their third-lowest levels since 1971, potentially limiting irrigation supply.

As the growing season approaches, water availability will be a key determinant of success for fruit and tree nut producers. Though southern California remains vulnerable, northern parts of the state and much of Washington are on track for improved conditions.

Producers will be watching temperatures closely. If 2025 brings another scorcher like 2024, water management and strategic planning will be more critical than ever for ensuring crop quality and yield.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry. You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.