In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we take a look at the New Zealand apple season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

In the midst of recovery from Cyclone Gabrielle, New Zealand apple producers are expected to plant substantially more land for the 2024/2025 Market Year (January 1 - December 31). Despite significant damages to New Zealand’s apple industry from floods, silt and debris, the volume of exports is expected to rise exponentially, 560,000 metric tons. This is thanks to positive weather forecasts, innovations at local farms, greater availability of seasonal labor along with previously planted fields reaching maturity and producing higher yields. This in turn has led to optimistic forecasts for exports of New Zealand-grown apples. Forecasted at 360,000 metric tons, New Zealand’s primary export focus for apple customers is East Asia along with the United States. 

Despite the sweeping U.S. tariffs implemented by the administration of President Donald J. Trump in early April 2025, New Zealand exports to the US are expected to increase for several reasons. Increasing demand for specific apple varieties has led to higher prices per metric ton. U.S. consumers hold New Zealand apples in high regard for their quality, indicating consumers may be willing to pay higher prices for continued consumption. While not completely or overly reliant on the U.S. market for exports, New Zealand can strategize its export game by sending higher-priced priced premium-quality varieties to the United States to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.

While not necessarily increasing volume, the overall cost of premium varieties at their higher market value will help the industry maintain profitability while it recovers from internal challenges. New Zealand’s relatively small trade deficit to the United States contributed to the country’s agricultural products being spared the brunt of U.S. tariffs. However, this is not a permanent reprieve as the Trump administration may continue to focus on balancing out trade deficits with other countries.

The proactivity of the New Zealand Government in addressing phytosanitary concerns in agricultural trade has also helped mitigate the impact of tariffs and assist export growth in 2025. A recent example of this occurred in November 2024, when the U.S. Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced that consignments of commercially produced fresh fruit from New Zealand, most notably apples, may be exported to the United States without need for additional declaration of freedom from Light Brown Apple Moth, given all other import requirements are met. New Zealand shows an interesting case on how nations around the world are adapting to the new reality of more restrictive trade and how each nation is placed differently to address U.S. tariffs that will very likely be a hot-button topic for the next four years. 

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry. You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.