Costa Rica's National Banana Corporation (CORBANA) has stated that the country's banana exports will not be substantially reduced as a result of the reciprocal tariff imposed by the U.S. administration.

The statement was in response to the 2025 Macroeconomic Report from the International Center for Economic Policy for Sustainable Development (Cinpe) at the National University (UNA), which projected that banana exports to the United States could fall by 18% due to the tariff.

CORBANA strongly disagreed with the projection, arguing that an 18% drop is unlikely to result from a single factor.

According to CORBANA, the study was based on a price elasticity of substitution of 1.5 and on tariffs applied to Costa Rica, Mexico and China. However, the organization noted that the study did not provide a specific calculation to support the elasticity figure, which is a generalized parameter for agricultural products recommended by the SMART model (World Bank, 2022). In contrast, international organizations such as the FAO and USDA have determined that the price elasticity of demand for bananas is inelastic—meaning price increases do not substantially alter the quantities consumed.

The study also assumed that other countries could easily substitute Costa Rican bananas. However, CORBANA noted that major suppliers of bananas to the United States, such as Ecuador, are also subject to the 10% reciprocal tariff.

Banana consumption

According to USDA figures, per capita consumption of bananas in the United States reached 12.1 kilograms in 2023, making it the most consumed fruit.

In addition, Fresh Trend-2024 reported that 82% of consumers had purchased bananas during 2023 and that bananas' popularity and consumption extend to all income levels, from the lowest to the highest, a particularity not all fruits have. This and its inelasticity make banana consumption resistant to price increases.

The cost of the tariff applied since April 2025 is being assumed by the importer, explained CORBANA. According to the indicated per capita consumption of bananas and based on the average consumer price in the United States (USD1.367/kilo for the first quarter of 2025) it was quantified that the annual expenditure would increase from USD16.54 to USD18.20, that is, for a family of four members, the increase in banana purchases would be around USD6.64 per year.

“Bananas are the cheapest fruit in the fresh produce departments, and this status will not change with the reciprocal tariff. Its price has not adjusted to inflation in more than 20 years, as other fruits have. Bananas represent a minor expense in the U.S. food budget,” said Marcial Chaverri, general manager of the National Banana Corporation.

“The UNA study did not consider the particularities of bananas and their consequences on consumer preferences and demand, and it is not correct to state that Costa Rican bananas are an easily substitutable product, considering that they are and will continue to be the cheapest fruit on the market,” he stressed.

Costa Rican bananas in 2025

This year, the volume of banana exports has decreased due to climatic effects, but not because Costa Rican bananas have been substituted for those of other exporting countries and other fruits.