In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we take a look at South American fruit export dynamics.  Each week, the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic, visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

In a significant shift in South American trade dynamics, Peru is projected to surpass Chile as the region's top fruit exporter in 2025. According to a detailed report by the General Directorate of Agricultural Policies under Peru's Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (Midagri), Peru's fruit export value is expected to reach $10.194 billion, slightly outpacing Chile's forecast of $9.979 billion.

This milestone reflects more than a decade of rapid growth in Peru's agricultural sector. From 2012 to 2022, Peruvian agricultural exports grew at an impressive average annual rate of 11%, almost double the 6.1% rate recorded by Chile. The 2024 figures already show the narrowing gap, with Peru's exports totaling $9.185 billion—just short of Chile's $9.403 billion.

The surge in Peru's agricultural trade is primarily attributed to its booming fruit exports, which have grown at an average annual rate of 19.6% between 2010 and 2024. In contrast, Chile's fruit export growth in the same period was 6.8%. Should this trend continue, Peru's fruit export revenues are projected to reach $11.064 billion by 2027, placing it well ahead of Chile by approximately 9%.

Peru's fruit export success has been driven by high-demand products such as blueberries and avocados, which have far outpaced Chilean exports in these categories. While Chile still leads slightly in table grapes, favorable weather conditions and improved cultivation practices could see Peru claim the global top spot in grape exports in 2025.

Globally, Peru is set to become the fifth-largest fruit exporter in 2025, overtaking Chile and trailing behind Spain, the Netherlands, Mexico and the US. Within Latin America, this transition marks a significant realignment, with Mexico, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Costa Rica being the primary exporters. Peru’s rise to regional leadership signifies its strengthening role on the global fruit trade map.

While Peru’s momentum is clear, the report also outlines potential risks that could impact growth. These include policy shifts in international trade, climate-related disruptions, and ongoing infrastructure and diplomatic vulnerabilities.

As Peru continues to expand its agricultural footprint, this development not only reshapes Latin American trade dynamics but also underscores South America’s increasing influence in the global fresh produce economy.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry. You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.