Avocados From Mexico sets the bar high with 2.5B reasons to believe

As Americans gear up for the Big Game with bowls of guacamole and record avocado consumption, country brand Avocados From Mexico (AFM) is already looking far beyond Super Bowl Sunday. 

The organization is forecasting a massive 2025-26 export volume of 2.5 billion avocados, driven by record production, improved fruit sizing, and an industry-wide push to sustain demand across the export calendar. 

Photo by Avocados From Mexico.

AFM President Álvaro Luque tells FreshFruitPortal.com that the projection is the result of several factors, including favorable weather, great orchard management, improved logistics, and successful marketing execution across the sector.

“This year we had a monstrous record harvest, and at the same time we had abundant rain, which made the fruit grow larger. So we have great calibers, such as 48s and 40s, which we know are very desired in the industry for promotion,” Luque says.

When it rains, it pours—literally

Mexico supplies about 85 percent of the United States avocado market. This is up from 81 percent in 2023, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s avocado annual report. 

Luque says growers and packers have strengthened orchard efficiency and quality standards, while distributors and retailers have boosted promotional activity to absorb the higher volume.

“And all that [industry management] is linked to a very aggressive marketing campaign that we have had throughout the year to be able to ensure that that volume is transferred into consumption in the sales points,” he says.

Luque notes that weather volatility remains both a risk and a defining feature of Mexican avocado production, as orchards rely primarily on rainfall rather than irrigation. Recent precipitation has improved the outlook not only for the current season but also for the following one. Producers, Luque says, have also advanced orchard management techniques to boost yields and maintain quality.

“Mexico has a very strong commitment to the quality of the product,” he says, adding that exporters voluntarily manage minimum dry matter levels to ensure flavor and texture consistency.

Avocados From Mexico: More than a one-game season

Avocados From Mexico expects imports for the Super Bowl to reach a record 280 million pounds, which Luque says would be the highest volume ever shipped from Mexico for the event. Despite the scale, he cautions that the Big Game represents only about 10 percent of annual US avocado consumption.

The executive explains that the remaining 90 percent comes from key summer events, such as Cinco de Mayo, Memorial Day, and the 4th of July. These holidays delivered 2025’s highest third-quarter volume, with 53.3 million units sold, a 10 percent year-on-year increase.

Photo by Avocados From Mexico.

Luque adds that the industry is benefiting from a balanced size profile, with smaller fruit supporting continued double-digit growth in bagged avocados, while larger sizes such as 48s and 40s support bulk promotions at retailers that prefer large fruit.

Looking ahead, Avocados From Mexico sees long-term growth driven by Millennials and Gen Z consumers, as well as regional expansion, particularly in the Southeast.

“We are very focused on trying to grow that area from Baltimore to Florida. And we are using very different activations from what we normally did in California or Texas, where the Hispanic market has a strong influence,” he explains. “All that regional understanding, all that focus on new generations, will keep this category growing in the future.”

For the upcoming Super Bowl, the group has launched an artificial intelligence-based activation called the “Prediction Pit,” designed to resonate with younger consumers engaged in fantasy football and digital prediction games.

The "Guac Guru" from AFM's Prediction Pit.

“Fantasy football, for example, has been growing incredibly in the US, and the average age of players is under 35. So, we know that this topic of predictions goes hand in hand with the new generations,” he adds.

Green numbers aside, Luque assures that avocado demand still has plenty of room to grow.

“The key message is confidence: Mexico will continue to have the supply, the quality, and the sizes retailers need, not only for the Super Bowl, but beyond,” Luque emphasizes.

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