Mexican tomato exports forecasted down 7 percent as antidumping duties weigh heavily on producers
The 2026 Mexican tomato production forecast is set to decline to 2.6 million metric tons, a nine percent year-on-year decrease, according to a report by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS).
While adverse weather and orchard management woes played a part in the reduction, the implementation of a 17 percent antidumping duty following the termination of the Tomato Suspension Agreement (TSA) was the primary driver.
Profit margins also weigh on producers. According to the report, the Mexican peso strengthened by 14 percent in 2025 and a further two percent through April 2026. This heavily impacted revenue.
However, the US will remain the dominant destination for Mexican tomatoes, accounting for more than 90 percent of export volumes.
Policy remains the biggest stumbling block
While Mexican tomatoes continue to enter the US tariff-free under the USMCA, most fresh tomato shipments remain subject to antidumping duties. Mexico also maintains free access for tomatoes exported to Canada, the European Union, Japan, the United Kingdom, and markets across Central and South America.
Following the TSA exit, Mexico announced updated minimum floor prices for fresh tomato exports to the US in September of last year.
But despite this measure, mounting regulatory hurdles are set to push export volumes lower in 2026, with the USDA projecting a seven percent drop, down to 1.8 million tons.
In 2025, total tomato exports fell four percent to two million metric tons. Shipments to the US declined by seven percent on drought-related production losses, as well as regulatory hitches.
Although exports to Canada increased by approximately 7,500 metric tons in 2025, the USDA noted that the gain represented less than one percent of the volume typically shipped to the US market.
Historically, Mexico exports between 65 percent and 70 percent of its fresh tomato output, with the remainder directed to domestic consumption or processing.
Mexican tomato production feels the heat
Tomatoes are produced in 31 of Mexico’s 32 states using open-field, shade-house and greenhouse systems. Protected agriculture now accounts for about 65 percent of total production.
The USDA forecasts planted area at approximately 93,900 acres in 2026, down 11 percent from the previous year.
Mexico produces a wide range of vine-ripened tomatoes, including round and Roma varieties as well as cherry, grape, and heirloom tomatoes. The government agency said growers have invested in protected production and new varieties to meet demand for greenhouse-grown and specialty tomatoes in the US market.
While rainfall during the first quarter of 2026 improved water availability in central Mexico and the Bajío region, the USDA said additional moisture has not triggered production expansion.
The sector remains concerned about the potential impact of a Super El Niño event, particularly in northern production regions such as Sinaloa. Higher humidity and prolonged cloud cover could increase the risk of fungal and bacterial diseases, reducing marketable yields and further limiting export supplies.
*All images are referential.
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