Australian nectarine and peach forecast down nine percent due to weather disruptions

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service in Canberra, Australia, projects a dramatic nine percent drop in the country’s peach and nectarine production. 

According to the agency’s latest Stone Fruit Annual report, the crop for the 2026/27 season will reach 60,000 metric tons, down from 66,000 metric tons last year. The decline is driven by an unseasonably warm winter, resulting in a deficit of chill hours for some nectarine and peach varieties. 

“Insufficient winter chill can lead to delayed and uneven bud burst, reducing the potential for a strong fruit set,” the report reads. 

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Additionally, excess rainfall over the coldest months has left the soil saturated, which, during the transition from dormancy to spring, encourages vegetative and root growth rather than fruit development. Ironically, the El Niño phenomenon is set to bring dry weather conditions in the warmest months of the year. According to the agency, this will drive up growers’ costs because of limited irrigation water and the need for additional pest management. 

“Unless higher peach and nectarine prices offset these increased costs and reduced yields, some growers may accelerate the removal of less profitable peach and nectarine orchards,” the report says. “Such removals could further reduce Australia’s medium-term production potential, particularly if replacement plantings do not occur at a sufficient rate.”

Exports are projected to decline

With decreasing production estimates, exports for Australian peaches and nectarines are also projected to fall. The USDA expects shipments to decrease by nearly 15 percent, sitting at 10,000 metric tons. 

The drop mainly affects nectarines, which account for about two-thirds of the segment’s exports, which the agency forecasts at 11,700 metric tons, nearly five percent below last year’s shipments.

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Australian nectarines travel mostly by air freight to China, which has historically accounted for more than 75 percent of the country’s exports in this segment. The rest goes in small volumes to other Asian destinations and Middle Eastern countries. 

Peaches, meanwhile, have a more diverse market with three buyers taking most of the Australian crop. Historically, China was the primary destination, but over the past five years, the Asian giant has lost some of its share to Singapore and the United Arab Emirates, with the former becoming the main destination for Australian fruit. 

Local peach and nectarine consumption is also down

According to the report, peach and nectarine consumption in Australia is down nearly eight percent year on year, estimated to go from 54,900 metric tons in 2025/26 to 50,500 metric tons in the current marketing year.

“Industry sources indicate that Australian consumers have increasingly favored berries in recent years, while consumption of peaches and nectarines, along with apples, has declined. Industry data confirms an upward trend in berry consumption alongside a sharp decline in peach and nectarine consumption,” the document says. 

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The USDA notes that the segment has experienced “well below historical levels” of production in recent years, which might be driving this downward trend. However, this doesn’t tell the whole story. The agency explains that low consumption reflects a combination of factors, chief among them rising cost-of-living pressures in Australia and declining berry prices, which may be changing consumers’ habits. 

“This trend is expected to continue during 2026/27 and potentially over the coming years, particularly if peach and nectarine production and availability remain below historical levels,” the USDA writes. 

*All images are referential.

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