Responsible for the grand majority of table grapes produced in the Golden State, the San Joaquin Valley is now taking center stage in the California season, as output coming from Mexico starts to wind down.
Industry veteran John Pandol, Special Projects Director at local producer and distributor Pandol Brothers, says the outlook for the area is good this season, with good yields and quality ready to hit the shelves.
Warm temperatures in April kicked off the season early, with some growers reporting the start of harvest two and even three weeks ahead of time, depending on the variety. This change in schedule, the expert explained to FreshFruitPortal.com, was the direct result of a 60-day period when temperatures in California were up to three degrees Fahrenheit above average for the time of year.
“You don’t notice in spring that it was 73 degrees Fahrenheit instead of 70 degrees Fahrenheit, but a two-degree difference for 60 days? The plants notice more than we do,” he said.
In the case of Pandol Brothers, the expert is projecting the start of fruit picking for this week, as their vineyards usually run five to seven days behind early growers. Picking for some candy varieties, he adds, has already started.
The change in timing shouldn’t have any effect on planning, crop size, or quality, Pandol said, but it may skew crop numbers at the end of the year. An early start in the San Joaquin Valley harvest doesn’t usually mean an early end to the season, but a longer one.
“Spreading out means lower storage report numbers, which some incorrectly perceive as a shorter crop,” he explained. “If we harvest the same amount of grapes over 10 percent more days, my inventory on any given day is lower, but not because there are fewer grapes, but because they are spread over more days.”
Any potential confusion could alter future planning and negotiation of table grape retail programs in the industry, making it particularly important to understand the figures behind this season within context.
At 96 million boxes, the 2026 California table grape season forecast sits right within the industry average in recent years.
However, despite the positive outlook, Pandol is keeping an eye on demand, which seems particularly volatile this season. This, he said, is especially important in the face of rising costs, including regulatory reporting and compliance, and trucking.
“There is always a battle to increase prices enough to recover costs, justify the capital expenditure, and pay for all the new varieties that didn’t work,” he said.
Abroad, things are looking good. Pandol says spot prices for their programs are in the “mid to high $20 range,” with favorable exchange rates and interested export markets, including Asia.
However, domestic demand might be more uncertain, as Americans’ disposable income dwindles amid rising gas prices and overall higher living costs across the country.
“If American consumers have four to five billion dollars less a month because of the price of gasoline, what do they not buy?” Pandol asks. “75 percent of households buy grapes during the year, and 11 percent buy grapes only once during the year. Do we lose some of those households? Or will they cut other things like entertainment, food away from home, or charitable contributions?”
Fortunately, the tides are changing, and they’re doing so in favor of California table grapes.
First, the still-fragile peace deal between Iran and the United States immediately gave the market confidence upon its announcement. The eventual opening of the Strait of Hormuz should have a positive effect on both gas and grocery prices, considerably slowing the trend decreasing Americans’ disposable income.
Additionally, July is usually a low-sales month for the table grape category, as the diverse offerings from other seasonal fruits intensify competition in the produce aisle. However, this year, category demand may see a slight, unexpected bump, says The Produce Alliance, as low cantaloupe supply may leave more space in consumers’ baskets right on time for America’s 250th.
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*All images courtesy of Pandol Bros.
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