Writing and reporting by Macarena Bravo | Lee este artículo en español
The 2026 Mexican table grape season proved to be a test of resilience as unpredictable weather patterns upended initial projections.
With exports falling significantly short of the anticipated 19 to 20 million boxes, Sergio Lugo, Director of Mexico Table Grapes and the Sonoran Table Grape Growers Association, described the campaign as a "difficult and highly complex" cycle toward a new era of climate-adaptive production.
"We knew there would be weather impacts, but we didn't expect them to be of this magnitude," he told FreshFruitPortal.com.
The executive explained that unusually warm temperatures in the winter prevented proper chill unit accumulation in the fields. Later, when the crop needed warmer conditions to develop, cool temperatures prevailed instead.
This was followed by an extreme heat event in March, with temperatures reaching nearly 104°F during the critical flowering and budbreak stages.
These weather anomalies also triggered an unprecedented early start. Lugo noted that harvesting typically begins in the final week of April, but this year picking got underway by mid-month—roughly two to three weeks ahead of schedule, depending on the variety.
This shift concentrated a vast portion of production in May, nearly doubling the month's typical volume. "We normally export around five million boxes in May; this year it was nearly ten million," he pointed out.
Looking at the main varieties and how they fared under these weather conditions, the executive noted that Sweet Globe, Sweet Celebration, and Flame suffered the greatest production impacts.
Beyond lower yields, the high temperatures in March compromised fruit quality in a portion of the crop, particularly for Sweet Globe and Sweet Celebration. In response, growers are working with breeders to improve both varietal performance and agronomic management strategies.
Early in the season, the United States, the main destination for Mexican grapes, saw heavy supply arriving from both Chile and the Mexican state of Jalisco, pressuring down prices for early Sonoran varieties.
The market ended up eventually balancing out, but by that point, the bulk of the Sonora crop had already been marketed.
To make matters worse, weekly exports never surpassed 2.8 million boxes, well below the baseline consumption for the US market estimated at roughly three million boxes per week.
Despite the challenging campaign, the Mexican table grape industry is already thinking about the next season, keeping a sharp focus on varietal replacement.
Lugo said that Flame acreage is declining, while the planted area for Sweet Globe, Sweet Celebration, Timson, Cotton Candy, Summer Royal, and Ruby Rose continues to expand.
"Currently, Flame remains the top exported variety at nearly 3.7 million boxes, though years ago it accounted for as much as 10 million,” he explained. “We expect its market share to keep shrinking over the coming seasons."
For the upcoming season, the industry leader estimates that 70 to 75 percent of total acreage will be proprietary or new varieties, leaving traditional cultivars with the remaining 25 to 30 percent.
With an eye on the future, growers are working to adapt their practices to the shifting weather patterns by exploring protected agriculture, updated agronomic practices, conducting field application trials, and developing climate-resilient varieties.
Lugo emphasized that the industry is actively monitoring weather patterns alongside climate experts.
"Climate change is a reality, and it represents the next major challenge for the entire table grape industry. Rather than discouraging us, these hurdles drive us to find new solutions to strengthen the sector; not just in Mexico, but across the entire hemisphere," he concluded.
*All images are referential via Shutterstock | Top image created with AI
On August 12, 2026, Monticello Conference Center, in Santiago, Chile, will host a new edition of the Global Grape Convention.
Organized by Yentzen Group, Frutas de Chile, Provid, Global Grape Group, and Mexico Table Grapes, the event will bring together leading international experts in an unmissable day of strategic content, key trends, and high-level analysis to anticipate market challenges.
The convention is a unique platform to connect with buyers, distributors, exporters, and retail leaders, generating real business opportunities and strengthening networks in a highly specialized environment.
For more info, contact events@yentzengroup.com
Tickets available at globalgrapeconvention.com
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