The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects U.S. agricultural imports to decrease in 2025. This comes after sustained growth, with imports forecasted to reach a record $200 billion in 2024 before slowing down, according to economic projections released this month.

"The slowdown is expected to be comparatively mild, falling from a peak of $200 billion in 2024 to a low of $193.1 billion in 2027. Following this decline, moderate growth is expected to resume and imports are projected to close at $ 211.9 billion in 2033," the Office of the Chief Economist report said.

Due to the relative strength of the current U.S. economy, the trade deficit is expected to be largest in 2024 at $30.5 billion and then narrow as conditions, such as moderating exchange rates, facilitate the slowing of imports. A smaller trade balance is expected to persist through 2033, in part due to strong demand for processed foods from Canada and Mexico.

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Tropical and off-season fruits hold strong

Horticultural products are the largest source of U.S. imports, comprising about half of the total, and growing by an average of 1.4% over the forecast period. 

Within the broad group of horticultural products, imports of fresh fruits and vegetables stood at $30.5 billion in 2023 and are forecast to grow at a relatively high annual rate of 2.1% over the decade. 

This includes shipments of tropical fruits that lack domestic volume, due to climate conditions, and off-season produce.

USDA forecasts the value of horticultural imports to decline moderately from a high of $98.4 billion in 2024, to a low of $95.8 billion in 2026, before increasing again to $111.5 billion in 2033.

"This is due to slowing growth in domestic fruit and vegetable production and increasingly competitive imports,” the USDA report said.

Those import commodities include avocados, berries, and citrus from Mexico, Chile, and Peru.