In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the Chilean table grape season. Each week, the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic and visualizing the market factors that are driving change.
According to projections by the Chilean Grape Committee, a season-end total close to 62 million boxes is projected for the 2023/24 season. The United States is anticipated to absorb approximately 57% of this figure, equivalent to around 35 million boxes.
Up to Week 8, Chile had already exported 15 million boxes to the United States. An additional 20 million boxes are slated for shipment between Weeks 9 and 17, with the East Coast expected to receive approximately 15 million and the West Coast 5 million. Notably, Weeks 11 and 12 have been identified as the peak periods for shipments. Chile, Mexico and Peru are the top three suppliers of fresh grapes to the U.S. market. Each supplied about a third of total U.S. fresh grape imports in 2023. Smaller supplies arrived from Brazil and South Africa.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.Ignacio Caballero, director of marketing of Frutas de Chile and coordinator of the Grape Committee, highlights the potential for retailers to capitalize on Chilean grapes during mid-March through April. With more than half of the projected volume for the U.S. market yet to be shipped, retailers have an opportunity to promote Chilean grapes effectively during this period.
This season has witnessed significant growth in exports of various grape varieties, including Sweet Globe, Allison, Timco, and Autumn Crisp. However, the notable decline in volume for Thompson Seedless, dropping by 52 percent in response to market feedback, underscores the dynamic nature of consumer preferences driving industry trends. Beyond the U.S. market, Chile has also diversified its export destinations, allocating 11 percent to the Far East, 8 percent to Latin America, and 5 percent to Europe.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.El Niño has necessitated adjustments in harvesting schedules, leading to smaller grapes and fewer boxes in some regions. The high temperatures prompted an earlier harvest in Copiapo. The earlier harvest meant smaller grapes and fewer boxes. The producers in Northern Chile, in particular, have faced challenges that have created a gap between their produce and that of their counterparts in central Chile.
This year, new varieties will account for 64% of the shipments. The American market is more receptive to these new varieties because of their superior caliber, "the new varieties are almost all extra-large and jumbo, it is easier to sell this volume," says Raul Hiriart, sourcing manager for South America at International Fruit Company. "I envision a promising future for the industry, provided that we persist in varietal replacement and tailor the volumes to accommodate exporters capable of delivering the new high-quality grapes, " Hiriart adds.
Nevertheless, the industry faces challenges from ongoing trends, such as shrinking planted areas due to tight profit margins and growing competition on the global stage. The decline in area planted, particularly in regions like Metropolitana, Atacama, and Coquimbo, underscores the need for strategic diversification and sustainable practices to ensure the sector's resilience.
“To remain competitive in the market, suppliers, regardless of origin, will need to focus on providing good quality, customer service and effective marketing”, says Carlos Bon, vice president of sales of Divine Flavor.
In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.
All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.
You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.
