Chilean cherry industry looking ahead: "The challenge today is big"
“The challenge today is great.” That’s how Claudio Vial, general manager of exporter Ranco Cherries, opened his presentation at the 2025 Global Cherry Summit, which brought together nearly 2,000 representatives from the Chilean and international cherry industries on April 22.
During his presentation, Vial noted that Chile’s cherry industry has grown at an average annual rate of 22% over the last five years - far outpacing the 6% growth rate of other Southern Hemisphere producers.
“This makes Chile increase its share within the Southern Hemisphere from 95% to 97% in exports,” he said.
He also pointed out that China and Hong Kong have grown their share of Chilean cherry exports from 83% to 90%, while other markets have grown at an average of 17% over the past decade.
Vial said South Korea and Taiwan are now more consolidated markets, with annual sales of approximately 5,000 to 6,000 tons. As for India, he noted that, given its enormous population, it has posted an average annual growth of 45% over the past five years.
“If we, as an industry, manage to maintain this growth rate over the next five years, India could equal Korea or Taiwan,” he said.
Regarding Europe, he stated, "We have three large markets: England, the Netherlands, Spain, and others. The European market is growing at an average annual rate of 15%."
With a look at Latin America, he noted that the market has experienced 9% annual growth. “Brazil has grown at 11% annually in the last 3 years; Mexico is also interesting with a 57% annual increase,” he added.
Chilean cherries
The general manager of Ranco Cherries presented figures for the planted area in Chile, based on the latest industry register of 2024: “The area increased from 63,495 to 70,686 hectares, so we expect to reach 82,057 hectares planted by the end of 2024.”
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He said that the Chilean cherry industry experienced a planting peak between 2019 and 2021, covering more than 26,630 hectares. The significant increase in production, exceeding 50 million boxes, was achieved between the seasons 2023-2024 and 2025-2026.
“What is coming in growth is 16,600 hectares, where 50% corresponds to Santina and 18% to new early varieties,” he said.
Regarding exported varieties, he said that in the 2023-2024 season, Santina stands out, with a growth of 124% due to the increase in production area. It is followed by Lapins, with a 30% increase, maintaining its position as the main exported variety, while Bing and Royal Dawn are recovering from their fall. Sweetheart is a variety that is on its way out.
Projection
With a long-term view of the Chilean cherry business, Vial explained that normal production is projected for all varieties. “Lapins is supposed to drop to 12 tons per hectare so that Santina would become the main exported variety,” he commented.
He stated that the sector's strong growth “has already passed” and that “next year we will have a 6% growth, and in 2026, we could reach 155 million boxes.”
This season presents a different equation, as the Chinese New Year falls later, potentially extending the export window.
"We are talking about at least 4,500 containers arriving in China every week. The peak week may be extended from week 50 to week 2," he explained.
Another point analyzed by Vial was based on demand, and he stated, “If demand in 2020 grew by 9% annually, in 2023, the supply and demand of cherries were 10% lower, and prices averaged $ 37 to $ 38.”
However, in 2024, supply grew 20% more than demand. “Here is a relevant point - China and the rest of the world ate the cherries, except for the 5 million boxes we lost in February. From 2024 to 2025, the oversupply caused prices to fall.”
Based on this scenario, Vial said that “a major adjustment in supply is required to rebalance supply and demand to recover pre-crisis prices.”
Another challenge is to develop other markets in an orderly manner.
"Chile must improve the perception of the cherries by guaranteeing quality, flavor, freshness, and safety. We need fresh fruit, so that the customer buys cherries once a week," Vial said.
