As the focus shifts from Mexico to California’s San Joaquin Valley, David Espinoza of Hronis International Sales said table grape growers are expecting strong volumes and a stable market in the weeks ahead - though weather volatility remains a key variable.

Espinoza particularly emphasized the importance of understanding regional variations, climate impacts, and market dynamics. The executive noted that Mexican supplies have so far yielded about 8.9 million boxes out of an estimated 24 million forecast, and that “the season is only halfway done.”

“We expect another 9 million boxes crossing the border during the next 4 weeks, considering almost 5 million losses so far due to weather effects,” he stressed.

In California, the season’s progression correlates closely with the start of the San Joaquin Valley’s harvest, notably beginning in Arvin, which marks the first significant production area following the Delta and Coachella Valleys. The latter, Espinoza said, has a much smaller volume this year. 

“Coachella was traditionally about 10 million boxes, but today it amounts to just about 2.5 million,” Espinoza explained, saying that while Coachella's season overlaps with Mexico’s, it cannot compensate for California’s overall volume needs.

“When Arvin kicks off, retailers immediately turn their attention to California, because they know this marks the start of a season that could reach around 100 million boxes,” Espinoza noted. Initial estimates place the 2025 California season at about 95 million boxes - slightly higher than the previous year.

Coachella Valley grapes. Photo courtesy of David Espinoza.

Market conditions

Looking ahead, Espinoza anticipated the season might see higher volumes due to an increased number of grape clusters observed so far. However, he cautioned that weather phenomena, especially heat waves during July and August, could significantly influence yields. 

“Heat waves can cause stress to the plants, leading to fruit drop, and in some cases, large losses,” he said. Climatic factors such as temperature extremes and rainfall across California’s vast territory often contribute to unpredictable harvest outcomes, with potential reductions of around 5-6% from initial forecasts.

Espinoza also highlighted that California’s export and harvest timeline is tightly coordinated. “By late November, 90% of California’s harvest is complete, and growers plan cold storage to extend shelf life into December and possibly January, supporting continued supply for retailers,” he explained. Container shipments from California typically serve West Coast markets, with imports from Peru, Chile, and other origins supplementing supply into December.

Market conditions this year remain quite stable. Espinoza said, “Mexico hasn't been overstocked, and pricing has been fairly steady because there isn’t an oversupply.” He added that Mexico’s season is relatively short, lasting roughly 8-10 weeks with a total of around 24 million boxes. “The seasonal demand pattern means that during peak weeks, extra fruit from Mexico may be stored temporarily in Nogales, Arizona, but overall, prices are holding.”

Coachella Valley grapes. Photo courtesy of David Espinoza.

Regarding logistical and demand factors, Espinoza indicated that importers and brokers in Nogales actively manage volume surges, with expectations that this oversupply may occur in late June if California’s volumes continue to rise as anticipated. He said that increased volumes from California may lead to a temporary price dip, especially when brokers and importers push to sell excess inventory.

On market challenges, Espinoza mentioned that tariffs are currently not a concern: “Thanks to existing trade agreements between Mexico, Canada, and the U.S., we don’t see any tariff issues for exporting California grapes.”

As for consumption, while industry trends suggest that demand for table grapes is growing, they have yet to reach top-tier placement in U.S. retail promotions. 

“Currently, grapes are below the top 5 promoted fruits,” Espinoza noted, with roughly 10,000 stores actively promoting grapes compared to about 18,000 early last year. Despite stable or slightly elevated prices, consumer promotion activity remains moderate at this stage of the season.

“In Arvin, we will probably begin harvests 5-7 days earlier compared to last year. We have yet to see Brix reports from the USDA. Usually, when your crop is heavy on bunch counting, the sugar content is not as high as we expect. We have a high expectation on volume and quality for our summer season as usual, and we are ready to handle and manage whatever is falling from the sky this year.”

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