China's table grape exports set to rival Peru for world No. 1 spot, USDA forecasts

China is poised to rival Peru as the world’s leading table grape exporter in the 2025/26 marketing year, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The agency’s latest Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears report projects that China’s table grape shipments will surge by 16 percent next year, climbing to 770,000 metric tons.

China's table grapes take over

The USDA attributes the growth in Chinese exports to technological improvements, including rain shelters and year-round varieties. 

These advances have steadily increased yields, allowing China to double shipments over the past four years while reducing reliance on imports. The agency projects the country’s production to rise by 800,000 tons to 15.0 million, marking the seventh consecutive year of growth.

The Asian giant faces little competition as a table grape exporter in Southeast Asia due to its major market share. The country holds over 70 percent of the regional export market, with Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia accounting for nearly 60 percent of China’s table grape exports.

China’s table grape boom is in part driving global exports within the category, which the USDA estimates will rise slightly to 4.2 million tons. Peru is also riding the growth wave, offsetting reductions from Chile and Mexico.

Table grape imports to Russia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan are expected to increase due to strong shipments from China, while US imports will rise slightly to 915,000 tons, surpassing last year’s record level.

Global fresh table grape production is forecast to increase by 545,000 tons to 30.0 million, mainly due to growth in China, India, the European Union, and Peru. Higher output in these regions is expected to offset declines in Turkey, the United States, and Chile.

Apple production set to hit a five-year low

The report forecasts that global fresh apple production will dip by five percent to 81.7 million tons, the lowest level in five years.

This downturn is fueled by steep losses in Turkey and China, which will outweigh the anticipated bumper crop in the United States.

China’s apple harvest is expected to shrink by 2.3 million tons to 47 million, hit by shrinking acreage and harsh weather. Turkey faces an even sharper drop, with production projected to plunge by 57 percent to just two million tons after a devastating spring frost.

Turkey’s sharp decline is knocking the country from the eighth-largest exporter to the twelfth-largest in 2025/26, the report states.

US apple production is expected to climb by 256,000 tons to five million, buoyed by a bumper crop in Washington.

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