Agronometrics in Charts: Fresh US strawberry output projected up

Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic, and visualizing trade market factors that are driving change. Check out our entire archive.

Strawberry production is entering the season with solid supply conditions, supported by favorable weather, a modest increase in acreage, and expectations for higher fresh output. An early start to the California harvest has accelerated market availability.

“There has been an early start to the season this year, driven by warm and dry winter weather,” according to Chris Christian, Vice President of market insights for the Watsonville-based California Strawberry Commission.

Acreage and weather support strawberry production

California, which accounts for approximately 90 percent of US strawberry production, is expected to see a slight expansion in planted area.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), acreage in the Golden State is projected to increase by two percent year-on-year to about 43,700 acres. This growth, combined with the introduction of new varieties, is expected to support an uplift in fresh output.

“We project an increase in overall fresh production compared to 2025, based on a slight increase in acreage and the new varieties now in production,” Christian says. Peak shipments are expected between May and August, aligning with historical consumption trends. 

Strawberry production is expected to remain ample throughout the season. The commission projects weekly volumes between 7 and 8 million trays through August, supporting sustained retail promotions and consistent market availability during key demand periods.

Despite some pest pressure linked to warm conditions, growers continue to report strong crop performance. Overall, the market outlook points to a well-supplied season characterized by strong production fundamentals, good fruit quality, and continued promotional opportunities.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

*All images are referential. 

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