Northwest Cherries forecasts up to 21.5 million boxes in first round estimate
The 2026 cherry season is looming, and Northwest Cherries is estimating between 19.5 and 21.5 million 20 lbs boxes in its first forecast. The higher end of the range sits seven percent below total production in 2025, an expected drop after a bumper year that resulted in 23 million boxes.
In a press release, the industry body explained that the campaign has been shaped by a warm winter and periods of spring frost. These weather events created initial uncertainty among growers, as higher-than-usual temperatures moved the season ahead of schedule and freezes in Washington’s Yakima Valley threatened to shrink projections as low as 17 million boxes, according to on-the-ground sources.
“Our growers have navigated the challenges with care and expertise, setting the stage for a promising season ahead,” read the release.
According to industry data, the number of growing degree days between the early and late districts in the current campaign is the highest it’s been since 2022. This would translate into an earlier than usual Pacific Northwest crop, with a nice spread and no concerns for compression at the moment.
Northwest Cherries was adamant that these projections are subject to change as the crop develops.
West Coast cherries, unite
Last year, pricing pressure hit Northwest growers hard, as high California cherry prices clashed with a large, early Washington crop, which led retailers to move fruit at a too-low pace.
This year, Northwest Cherries and the Golden State industry are coordinating efforts to prepare the market to better allocate all West Coast fruit.
A warm end of winter has also affected the California cherry industry, which, according to the industry body, is off to an early start—about two weeks ahead of last year.
“Harvest is ramping up quickly, and while some growing regions have experienced compression along with isolated rain and hail events, the overall outlook remains positive,” Northwest Cherries said.
The organization explained that the Golden State is expecting to maintain promotable volumes through Memorial Day weekend, “just in time for the Northwest to start picking and ramping up our season.”
*All images and graphs courtesy of Northwest Cherries.
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