Agronometrics in Charts: The Evolution of US - Canada agricultural trade: CUSTA, NAFTA, and USMCA

Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ examines a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic and visualizing the trade market factors driving change. Check out our entire archive.

Agricultural trade between the United States and Canada has grown steadily over the past three decades, making Canada one of the largest markets for US agricultural exports. As shown in the chart, both exports to Canada and imports from Canada have increased significantly since 1990, despite temporary declines during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on July 1, 2020, replaced NAFTA and modernized North American trade by strengthening rules for agricultural trade, food safety, biotechnology, and market access. Since then, agricultural trade has continued to reach record levels, highlighting the importance of integrated supply chains and strong cross-border markets.

The USMCA remains crucial for North American agricultural trade

A key milestone occurred on July 1, 2026, when the United States, Canada, and Mexico held the first mandatory USMCA Joint Review.

While the United States did not agree to extend the deal in its current form, the review did not end the USMCA. Instead, the treaty remains in force, and the three countries will continue annual reviews while negotiating possible updates.

For the agricultural sector, this means trade continues under the existing rules, providing stability for producers while discussions on the agreement's future progress continue.

Overall, the steady growth in agricultural trade demonstrates the success of North American economic integration under CUSTA, NAFTA, and USMCA.

Although the 2026 review introduced some uncertainty, USMCA continues to serve as the foundation for one of the world's largest agricultural trading relationships.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

*All images are referential | Graphs courtesy of Agronometrics.

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