A recent report by the USDA is forecasting global table grape production up 490,000 tons for 2023-24, as improved Chinese supplies are set to offset losses in the European Union.
Exports are expected to remain nearly unchanged at 3.7 million tons, with greater shipments coming from Chile and China making up for losses from Turkey and the U.S.
Shipping volumes were severely impacted by drought restrictions imposed on the Panama Canal in May, which saw daily transits and vessel capacity reduced.
However, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) announced Dec. 15 that it will increase the number of daily transits to 24 starting in January.
The U.S. consumes approximately 1.3 million tons of table grapes per year, with imports accounting for slightly more than half. The main suppliers are Peru, Chile, and Mexico, which combined account for 98% of total imports.
Almost all Mexican shipments enter the U.S. overland through Arizona and Texas, but the majority of supplies from Chile and Peru enter East Coast ports, with the quickest and most economical transit being through the Panama Canal.
Chilean 2023-24 production is projected to rebound from last year’s adverse weather, surging 89,000 tons to 745,000, as abundant winter rains boost yield, more than offsetting losses from continued declining acreage.
Higher supplies are expected to boost exports from 68,000 tons to 565,000. The U.S. takes roughly 50% of overall Chilean table grape exports.
Peruvian volumes, which saw exponential growth market during 2023 despite logistical issues at the beginning of the year, are expected to remain steady at 776,000 tons. Warmer temperatures and higher humidity in the northern regions around Piura have made the vineyards more susceptible to fungal disease and therefore reducing volumes.
However, more typical growing conditions in and around Ica to the south are expected to boost output and offset losses in the north. In line with production, exports are forecast nearly unchanged at 595,000 tons on continued strong demand in Northern Hemisphere markets. If realized, Peru would remain the world’s largest exporter, just ahead of Chile.
South African production is expected to recover from last year's rain and heat-affected crop, rising to 342,000 tons on good growing conditions and new cultivars coming into production. More than half of the vines are relatively young at 9 years old or younger, with 15% less than 2 years old, and over 90 percent are now seedless varieties. Exports are forecast up 25,000 tons to 310,000 on greater output.
Australian volumes are also projected up, rising 10,000 tons to a record 220,000, marking a complete recovery to pre-COVID levels. A dry spring and summer combined with abundant irrigation supplies have resulted in very good bud burst and bunch formation, with strong yields expected. With greater export quality supplies available, exports are anticipated up 9,000 tons to 140,000 with higher shipments to Asian markets.
