Agronometrics in Charts: US apple crop 2025 set to be one of the largest in recent history

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According to the Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report published by the USDA in September, the 2025 US apple crop is shaping up to be one of the largest in recent history, with a total production forecast at 11.5 billion pounds.

That’s up six percent from last year and marks just the third time in a decade the crop has topped 11 billion pounds.

US apple crop—state-by-state breakdown

Washington State, which leads the country in apple production, is expected to hit a record 8 billion pounds, up 7 percent from 2024. The fruit quality is reported as high, though ongoing labor shortages may limit how much actually gets picked. Washington continues to send most of its apples to the fresh market, with Gala, Honeycrisp, and Granny Smith making up nearly half the state’s volume.

In New York, growers are looking at a 12 percent year-over-year increase, with a forecast of 1.45 billion pounds. Early-season drought hurt crop ratings, but conditions improved as harvest got underway. McIntosh, Gala, and Rome are expected to lead the state’s variety mix.

Michigan is projecting a slight drop to 1.1 billion pounds, down 4 percent from last year. It’s still producing strong yields thanks to more high-density plantings. Gala, Fuji, and Red Delicious are its top three varieties.

Pennsylvania holds steady at 430 million pounds, with reports of excellent crop quality. Meanwhile, Virginia is down sharply, 28 percent below 2024 levels, after a damaging spring freeze. Oregon is headed for its best crop since 2020, up 38 percent.

California rounds out the group with a forecast of 160 million pounds. On the variety side, Honeycrisp is expected to make a big comeback and may become the third-largest variety nationwide by volume. But a higher supply could put some downward pressure on prices this fall.

Export activity remains strong. US growers shipped 1.85 billion pounds of fresh apples abroad in 2024/25, accounting for 25 percent of total fresh production.

Organic exports hit a new high at 368 million pounds, with Mexico being the largest buyer of both conventional and organic fruit.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

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