Northwest Cherries adjusts season forecast down 12 percent

Less than a month after its first season estimate, Northwest Cherries has revised its forecast for the 2026 season down. The latest figure points to up to 19.2 million 20-pound boxes, representing a 12 percent decrease compared to initial projections. 

In a press release, the industry body cited unusual weather conditions as the cause of the revision. 

"The early spring frost events across the growing region required additional time to fully evaluate fruit set and assess the extent of any damage," the statement reads. "Growers and field teams have spent the past several weeks monitoring orchards closely to determine what was held on the trees and where the crop estimate would come out."

Changing weather patterns have also thrown the region's usual timeline off balance. Harvest is expected to begin slightly earlier than normal in the last week of May, with a slower ramp-up that will make promotable volumes available by mid-June. The first major volume peak should arrive around June 25, followed by another strong one during the second week of July.

Unfortunately, that's not the end of the region's weather woes, as high temperatures over the last few weeks have accelerated crop development and pushed later-season fruit forward. This, the association explains, is creating expectations for an early harvest window across all districts.

But despite the weather and the lower crop estimate, local growers remain optimistic. 

"The crop outlook continues to improve, the fruit sizing is excellent, and this is shaping up to be a high-quality, promotable crop," reads the document.

Northwest Cherries emphasized that the latest forecast coincides with the region's five-year average, and the season's rhythm is shaping up as usual, with shipments tapering by early August. 

California cherries lose momentum 

According to the California Cherry Board, as of May 13, the state has shipped 3,501,758 (18lb equivalent) boxes.

Challenging weather conditions, including unseasonal rains and early warm temperatures at the beginning of the spring, have significantly impacted the crop. The industry is now expecting a shorter season than originally anticipated, with total shipments finishing between four and five million boxes.

Results from the California cherry season are crucial for Northwest growers, as they set the stage for their own commercial window.

On the downside, a weaker performance by the Golden State could create a supply gap, breaking retail momentum and significantly impacting prices at the start of the Northwest cherry season.

On the other hand, a shorter California season could amp up consumer interest through limited supply, an opportunity that could drive prices at the beginning of summer, leveraging key promotional dates like the Fourth of July, especially in the context of America's 250th.    

*Images and graphs courtesy of Northwest Cherries. 

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