Agronometrics in Charts: Peru's blueberry industry faces climate uncertainty as El Niño risk builds
Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ examines a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic and visualizing the trade market factors driving change. Check out our entire archive.
Peru's blueberry industry is entering the 2026/27 season amid expanding production potential and growing climate uncertainty.
While early export projections point to another strong start for the world's largest blueberry exporter, producers are increasingly cautious as weather volatility and the potential return of El Niño raise concerns about conditions later in the campaign.
In its first forecast for the 2026/27 season, Proarándanos projected fresh blueberry exports of 56,000 metric tons through week 33, exceeding volumes shipped during the same period last year. The association attributed the increase to approximately 3,000 additional hectares (7,400 acres) entering production, bringing Peru's blueberry area to roughly 27,000 hectares (66,700 acres).
Continued maturation of younger plantations and the expansion of plantings of early-season varieties such as Sekoya Pop and Ventura are also expected to support stronger early-season volumes.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
High expectations for Peru's blueberry sector
Despite the positive start, Proarándanos emphasized that uncertainty remains unusually high. Recent temperature increases have prompted the association to limit its outlook to short-term forecasts rather than issuing a full-season projection. According to the organization, warmer-than-normal conditions could affect flowering and fruit development during the middle portion of the season, potentially reducing productivity and altering harvest timing.
The industry's caution comes as global climate agencies warn that El Niño conditions are rapidly developing in the Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently reported an 80 percent probability that El Niño will emerge during the June-August period, with the likelihood increasing to more than 90 percent through at least November. Forecast models suggest the event could reach moderate or even strong intensity.
El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and is one of the world's most influential climate patterns. While every event differs, El Niño is often associated with increased weather volatility, including heatwaves, shifts in rainfall patterns, flooding in some regions and drought in others.
For Peru's blueberry industry, the concern is not simply the arrival of El Niño itself, but the uncertainty it introduces during critical stages of crop development. Elevated temperatures can accelerate plant growth, alter flowering behavior, and impact fruit quality and yields. The industry is particularly sensitive to these changes given the scale of Peru's production and its role as a year-round supplier to global markets.
The memory of the 2023 El Niño event remains fresh for growers. Weather-related disruptions affected production curves, harvest timing, and export schedules, forcing the industry to adapt rapidly to changing conditions. While current production fundamentals remain strong, the prospect of another El Niño has prompted producers to adopt a more cautious approach.
As the season progresses, weather conditions are likely to become a key factor shaping Peru's blueberry export performance. Proarándanos plans to update its forecast within the coming weeks as additional climate data becomes available. Until then, the industry's outlook reflects a balance between expanding production capacity and the growing influence of climate risk on global berry supply.
For global blueberry markets, Peru's situation serves as a reminder that production growth alone no longer determines supply expectations. Increasing climate variability is becoming an equally important factor, influencing not only yields and harvest timing but also the confidence with which growers and exporters can forecast the season ahead.
*Images are referential | Graph courtesy of Agronometrics.
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