Agronometrics in Charts

Agronometrics in Charts: Peruvian grapes bridging supply gaps left behind by Hurricane Hilary

In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of Peruvian grapes in the market. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

A few weeks ago Peru kicked off its table grape campaign for the 2023-2024 season. Volumes from Ica are tracking closely with the numbers from the 2022/23 season. However, there's a significant increase in average pricing due to limited supply, largely impacted by Hurricane Hilary's effect on table grape production in California which left the spot market with limited product.

This has led to the market seeking grapes from Peru at favorable prices. Customers have been turning their focus to Ica as their preferred source of supply. The current estimates for Peru production, according to Alejandro Cabrera, General Manager of Provid, are remarkably similar to those of the previous season at 71.4 million boxes.

In April, Peru officially surpassed Chile as the top grape exporter in South America, with a 40,000-ton difference, indicating a 7% volume lead and pushing Chile into second place. Since then, Peru's grape sector has continued to experience substantial growth. Particularly noteworthy is the consistent rise in exports to the U.S. over the past few years. The value of shipments in 2022 was nine times higher than the initial shipments recorded in 2012.

The key grape-producing regions include Piura, Lambayeque, and Trujillo in the north, and Lima, Ica, and Arequipa in the south. Peru has been on a strong growth streak, with an average increase of 20% over the past three seasons in the north. In contrast, the southern regions have grown at a more modest rate of 11%.

With the initial projections in mind, it seems this season may deviate from recent patterns, as the volume of grapes from the northern region is expected to be notably lower compared to previous seasons.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

As of week 38, the main shipments are to the United States with 20%, in second place is Colombia with 15%, Mexico also has 15% of shipments, the Netherlands, with 13%, and other countries with 38%. 

The shifting dynamics for pricing and supply levels inevitably raise questions about how consumers will respond. Understanding consumer behavior in this context will be essential for both producers and retailers. The Peruvian grape season will likely be a turning point in the global grape market. With an early harvest and increased demand, producers and stakeholders must navigate shifting supply and demand dynamics. The direction of the grape market for the upcoming season will be determined by the decisions made in the coming weeks.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.

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