Chilean cherry prices are currently trending at $60.21 per package in the U.S. market, about 11% higher compared to week 48 of 2022. Fedefruta, Federation of Fruit Producers of Chile projects that a decline of up to 50 percent is expected in early varieties of Chilean cherries, indicating a substantial decline from the initial estimate of a 30 percent loss in the early crop, primarily attributed to split fruit. This revision points to an overall export crop falling below the 80 million carton threshold.

The federation warned of adverse impacts in Curicó, a pivotal production area, where orchards are projected to harvest only 20-40% of the expected crop due to storms and unexpected rainfall, with Royal Dawn and Santina varieties being most affected. According to the USDA’s Chile: Stone Fruit Annual report, Maule, being the principal production region in Chile and encompassing 45.2% of the overall planting area, is also susceptible to the potential impacts of rainfall during the harvest season in December and January.

The decline is also attributed to the limited accumulation of cold hours during winter, impacting the flowering and fruit setting processes in early cherry varieties. In light of the lower volumes out of Chile and the high demand which is customary during the holiday season, prices could be expected to escalate further during the upcoming weeks.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)