China is the world's largest producer of oranges, tangerines, mandarins, pomelos, and grapefruits. According to the latest USDA citrus annual report, the country's citrus production volumes increased by 7% in 2023, reaching a net total of more than 64 million metric tons. 

With China’s ample supply and increasing demand from Southeast Asian countries, forecasts suggest that citrus exports will continue to grow in 2024-25.

However, the report indicates that orange production will decrease slightly due to the naturally smaller Navel crop year. In contrast, the production of tangerines/mandarins and pomelos/grapefruit is expected to grow.

In southern China, the Guangxi and Guangdong provinces represent the largest growing regions, accounting for 38% of the total.

Challenges for 2024-25

As citrus volumes increase this year, growers will have to contend with the effects of cold weather in early spring, which may have impacted fruit setting.

Additionally, citrus greening disease has affected multiple growing areas, with some crops down by 15 to 20%.

Nevertheless, the report states that these production challenges will be offset by the growth in the total number of producers in the industry, including new entrants to orange farming.

Oranges

China's orange production is projected to reach 7.6 million metric tons in 2024-25, a slight reduction from the revised estimate for 2023-24.

The report notes that various weather-related issues threaten orange production, including persistent rain in April and May, which caused lower fruit-setting rates, and high temperatures in August and September.

Jiangxi and Guangxi provinces are expected to produce 20% fewer oranges due to maturing fruit trees and the impact of greening disease.

Orange exports are projected to increase to 160,000 MT in 2024-25, driven by strong demand from other Asian countries and competitive pricing.

Exports of Chinese oranges have grown substantially in recent years, supported by preferential trade agreements, improved transportation (such as the China-Laos Railway), and "aggressive relationship building."

The country’s orange exports increased by over 220% in 2023-24, primarily driven by limited competition and strong demand from Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam (up 92%) and Malaysia (up 1,000%).

Tangerines and Mandarins

China’s production of tangerines and mandarins is forecast to reach 27 million metric tons, a slight increase from 2023-24, with higher output in multiple cities.

Domestic consumption of these fruits continues to grow, with an estimated 25 million metric tons expected for 2024-25, as mandarins remain a popular gift, especially during Lunar New Year celebrations.

The country will import 50,000 metric tons of tangerines and mandarins, mainly from South Africa and Australia.

Exports are expected to approach 2 million metric tons, with Vietnam, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Indonesia, and Thailand as the top five international buyers.

Pomelo and Grapefruit

China's production of pomelo and grapefruit is forecast at 5.25 million metric tons. Increased consumer demand is driving the development of new varieties.

Pomelo exports for MY 2024/25 are projected at 230,000 MT, up 12.7% from the previous year. This increase reflects growing international demand for Chinese pomelos and grapefruits.

Top export destinations include the Netherlands, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Romania, and Canada.

The report highlights that gift packaging design and branding (e.g., private labels) are becoming increasingly popular in retail stores to help products stand out from competitors. Additionally, new hybrid varieties, such as seedless and easy-to-peel options, are likely to outperform others. Fruits with a balanced sweet-to-tart ratio are in particularly high demand.

The rapid development of fresh delivery services throughout the supply chain is critical for maintaining citrus quality before it reaches consumers.